New York's voters

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John F
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New York's voters

Post by John F » Sun Apr 03, 2016 4:50 am

New York's presidential primary is coming up in about 2 weeks. I checked online to make sure I'm registered to vote - I am - and to locate my election district's polling place - it's been moved since 2012. While I was at it, being curious about how the voting is likely to go, I checked the voter registration statistics, which are at:

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enro ... _apr16.pdf

Statewide, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1. But the totals for NY City and upstate tell very different stories. Upstate, there are nearly as many registered Republicans as Democrats, and 25% of the voters are independents - that is, they designated no party when registering. Since only voters registered with a political party can vote in that party's primaries, a big chunk of New York's voters will be silent on primary election day; and upstate, the general election can go either way. In New York City, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6 to 1, while independent voters are relatively few, about 17% of the total; within the city limits, the Republican nominee doesn't stand a chance.

What does this mean? It means that the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, should easily defeat the Republican here, winning 29 electoral votes.

So who will New Yorkers vote to nominate? Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, two New York City residents, have double digit leads as of the latest polls. Bernie Sanders's popularity here is on the rise as New Yorkers get to know him, and as NYC is considerably more liberal than the rest of the state, he may well carry quite a few districts here. My feeling is that nonetheless, it won't even be close; Hillary Clinton should win big in her home state. And since the Democratic Party awards its convention delegates in proportion to the state's popular vote, she should get the lioness's share. Whatever, if she loses my district by one vote, it won't be because of me. :)
John Francis

jbuck919
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Re: New York's voters

Post by jbuck919 » Sun Apr 03, 2016 4:53 pm

I did make sure I'd be back in time on the 19th to vote. Of course NY will go for Clinton, in both the primary and the general election. (Curiously, New York is not one of the easier states to vote in, and never has been. John F's recent need to verify things confirms that. There is no overt voter suppression, but neither as in Oregon now is everything automatic and easy. When I first registered to vote, I had to drive to the gosh-forsaken and not conveniently located town of Goshen, the county seat of Orange County, to do so. The only other time I was ever there was to meet with the Draft Board.)

What is galling to me is that the NY 21st is a swing district. The first-term Republican incumbent, who is not all that awful, a Harvard graduate (ahem), and young and pretty (these things do count) would probably win anyway because she serves her constituents' local needs well and nobody here gives a darn that she's still on record as wanting to repeal Obamacare. It is likely that thousands of people who benefit or could benefit from that program will vote for her not even knowing that. She wants to maintain Social Security and Medicare, but only if the Democrats "compromise," meaning accept reductions in benefits. Nevertheless, the chances if any of the Democrat winning have been scotched by a Green Party candidate who already stole votes in the last election. It's him I want to--well, these days I'd better not say online what I want to do to him even if it is just hyperbole spoken in frustration. These Green candidates remind me of the movie character who is driving a flivver making his jolly way at about 45 mph on the New York Thruway, just being a good citizen but completely oblivious to the reality around him and the trouble he is causing.

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
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lennygoran
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Re: New York's voters

Post by lennygoran » Sun Apr 03, 2016 7:05 pm

jbuck919 wrote:forsaken and not conveniently located town of Goshen, the county seat of Orange County, to do so.
We went through that town a few years ago on our way up to Dutchess County taking country routes-hope you caught the lovely farmers market very close to their famous raceway! Regards, Len :)

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jbuck919
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Re: New York's voters

Post by jbuck919 » Sun Apr 03, 2016 9:03 pm

I remember two things about the place, besides the fact that it is the home of the not-to-be-missed National Museum of Harness Racing. You had to get on a two-lane country road called the Sarah Wells Trail, which did not even appear on any road map at the time, and it had a new and controversial county municipal building designed by the distinguished architect Paul Rudolph, which was recently demolished amidst equal controversy, thus reducing by 100% the architectural interest of the place.

Image

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
-- Johann Sebastian Bach

lennygoran
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Re: New York's voters

Post by lennygoran » Mon Apr 04, 2016 6:54 am

I wasn't aware of this building and it's controversy-not to my taste but the recently deceased famous architect said this: "Zaha Hadid said that the integrity and the interconnectivity of the building serve as the expression of democracy, since elected representatives are not separated from the constituents" Regards, Len

PS-what's been proposed looks nicer to me but everyone has their own taste.

John F
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Re: New York's voters

Post by John F » Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:28 am

Last Friday, the editorial board of the New York Post conducted an in-depth interview with Bernie Sanders giving him the opportunity to fill in the many blanks in his campaign proposals and promises. A complete transcript is here:

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/tran ... -1.2588306

I doubt many New York voters will read all this. I certainly haven't; life is too short etc. So here's a critique of the interview in the Washington Post. Now Sanders and his team have a week to prepare for the debate next week, when he is likely to be hit with some of the same questions with a nationwide audience watching.


This New York Daily News interview was pretty close to a disaster for Bernie Sanders
By Chris Cillizza
April 5

Bernie Sanders sat down with the New York Daily News editorial board last Friday, seeking its endorsement in the upcoming April 19 Empire State primary. It did not go well for the senator from Vermont. Time and again, when pressed to get beyond his rhetoric on the evils of corporate America and Wall Street, Sanders struggled. Often mightily.

A few examples make the point. Here’s an exchange between the editorial board and Sanders on how, specifically, he would break up the biggest banks in the country:

Daily News: And then, you further said that you expect to break them up within the first year of your administration. What authority do you have to do that? And how would that work? How would you break up JPMorgan Chase?

Sanders: Well, by the way, the idea of breaking up these banks is not an original idea. It’s an idea that some conservatives have also agreed to. You’ve got the head of, I think it’s, the Kansas City Fed, some pretty conservative guys, who understands. Let’s talk about the merit of the issue, and then talk about how we get there. ...

Daily News: Okay. Well, let’s assume that you’re correct on that point. How do you go about doing it?

Sanders: How you go about doing it is having legislation passed, or giving the authority to the secretary of treasury to determine, under Dodd-Frank, that these banks are a danger to the economy over the problem of too-big-to-fail.

Daily News: But do you think that the Fed, now, has that authority?

Sanders: Well, I don’t know if the Fed has it. But I think the administration can have it.

And this back-and-forth over the consequences of forcing the closure or fundamental reorganization of the big banks:

Daily News: So if you look forward, a year, maybe two years, right now you have ... JPMorgan has 241,000 employees. About 20,000 of them in New York. $192 billion in net assets. What happens? What do you foresee? What is JPMorgan in year two of ...

Sanders: What I foresee is a stronger national economy. And, in fact, a stronger economy in New York State, as well. What I foresee is a financial system which actually makes affordable loans to small and medium-size businesses. Does not live as an island onto themselves concerned about their own profits. And, in fact, creating incredibly complicated financial tools, which have led us into the worst economic recession in the modern history of the United States.

Daily News: I get that point. I’m just looking at the method because, actions have reactions, right? There are pluses and minuses. So, if you push here, you may get an unintended consequence that you don’t understand. So, what I’m asking is, how can we understand? If you look at JPMorgan just as an example, or you can do Citibank, or Bank of America. What would it be? What would that institution be? Would there be a consumer bank? Where would the investing go?

Sanders: I’m not running JPMorgan Chase or Citibank.

There’s more — lots more — including an exchange over what law, exactly, Wall Street executives broke during the economic collapse and how Sanders would actually prosecute them. But the two passages above give you some idea of how the bulk of the interview went: the Daily News pressing Sanders for specifics and asking him to evaluate the consequences of his proposals, and Sanders, largely, dodging as he sought to scramble back to his talking points.

For Sanders’s critics — including Hillary Clinton — the Daily News interview is the “ah ha!” moment that they have been insisting will come for Sanders, a time when his pie-in-the-sky proposals are closely examined and found wanting. Sure, free college tuition sounds good, but how, exactly, do you pay for it? And, yes, breaking up the biggest banks seems appealing — particularly if you saw “The Big Short” — but (a) can you actually do it? and (b) what does it mean for all the people those banks employ?

A large part of Sanders’s appeal to the throngs who back him is his insistence that we are in need of a political revolution. And, for those people, the Daily News interview will be much ado about nothing. But what the interview exposes is that once the revolution happens there will be lots of loose ends to tie up. Loose ends that Sanders either hasn’t grappled with — or doesn’t want to.

Remember that Sanders’s campaign began as the longest of long shots. He could propose the world and more because no one thought that he ever had a chance at winning. I could tell you 100 radical changes I would make to the NBA if I were commissioner — raise the age limit to 21, move the three-point line back, etc. — but I would never have to really explain how I was going to do it because you would know there’s a zero percent chance I am going to run the NBA. But if suddenly my name started to pop up on lists to replace Adam Silver — please please please let this happen — then a more careful examination of how I was going to accomplish all of my proposals would be in order.

The Daily News interview amounts to a moment of reckoning for Sanders. Okay, let’s say you get elected — now what? And have you thought through what it might mean to the American worker and the American economy if all of the things you insist have to happen actually did happen? Judging by Sanders’s responses, he hasn’t.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... d=pm_pop_b
John Francis

jbuck919
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Re: New York's voters

Post by jbuck919 » Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:54 pm

I just got a call from a Sanders boiler room. I told the guy politely that I'm voting for Clinton and then hung up. Apparently these things are actually effective in getting the vote out (they helped give my CD our last Democratic representative before reapportionment in a close race). I sure hope Clinton has had enough sense to set up her own network of these.

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
-- Johann Sebastian Bach

John F
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Re: New York's voters

Post by John F » Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:25 pm

jbuck919 wrote:I sure hope Clinton has had enough sense to set up her own network of these.
You can count on it. That's an advantage of being a real Democrat instead of just a Democrat for convenience: you can call on the Party's regulars, the volunteers who work for Democratic candidates year in and year out in addition to those attracted by your own campaign, which is where Sanders's volunteers come from.
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Re: New York's voters

Post by Chalkperson » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:26 am

jbuck919 wrote:I remember two things about the place, besides the fact that it is the home of the not-to-be-missed National Museum of Harness Racing. You had to get on a two-lane country road called the Sarah Wells Trail, which did not even appear on any road map at the time, and it had a new and controversial county municipal building designed by the distinguished architect Paul Rudolph, which was recently demolished amidst equal controversy, thus reducing by 100% the architectural interest of the place.

Image
That's Brutalist Archirecture at its finest!
Sent via Twitter by @chalkperson

karlhenning
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Re: New York's voters

Post by karlhenning » Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:13 pm

Chalkperson wrote:That's Brutalist Archirecture at its finest!
I applaud your delicious oxymoron, sieur : )

Cheers,
~k.
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