Falling gas prices: why now?

RebLem · Post by **RebLem** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:58 pm

September 14, 2006 at 22:38:04

Have you noticed the Gas Price Drop?
by Robert Raitz

www.opednews.com

Hey there!

I recently wrote an article entitled, Have you noticed... This particular article focused on the recent downturn in gas and oil prices. My opinion on that downturn is that it was directly tied to the upcoming mid-term elections. Well, today on the news, I was greeted with what I would call a pretty big support of that theory.

Whereas a few weeks ago, gas prices were the number three concern among voters, this week, it's not in the top five. Gee, that's pretty amazing. It's almost like it was planned that way. Hmmm...

Then came the "reasons" why gas and oil prices are supposedly dropping so quickly. The first reason given was just too weak for words. Frankly, I am surprised they trotted that one out. Gas prices always come down as we head towards winter because winter gasoline blends are supposedly cheaper to produce. Well, that's somewhat true. In the days before DUBYA stole the White House, it wasn't that uncommon to see prices for gas fall slightly after Labor Day. However, as I stated in the original article, the prices stared falling a few weeks before Labor Day, just about the time we started hearing about polls showing the Republicans sucking hind tit coming into the mid-terms. Curious, isn't it? It's even more curious, because prices shot up sharply around Labor Day last year, but I'll get to that one soon.

Then there was the second reason. The market is no longer consumed by fears that Iran will use its oil as a weapon in our ongoing spat with them over Uranium enrichment. I admit that I don't really know a lot about futures markets, and what sends them into spasm. However, this "reason" seems to be just about as weak as the prices falling after Labor Day thing. The situation in Iran hasn't cooled much. Israel calls them the handmaidens of Hezbollah. They are still enriching uranium, and the rest of the world still has its panties in a bunch because of the enrichment.

Reason number three: the pipeline "failure" in Prudhoe Bay isn't as "bad" as originally thought. I might buy that one except that a few weeks ago when it was discovered, the prophets of oil doom were saying this one could pump prices up to over four buck a gallon for gas. I have to think that one has all the smells of a ruse. The Oil Pigs were getting hungry for even more profit, and they figured that would be a good cover story to jack up gas prices some more. While it might seem more plausible than the other reasons so far, I still think it's a ruse.

Reason number four: no hurricanes have hit Gulf Coast refineries. As I said above, last year, prices went up after Labor Day, not down. In what I can see as the only reason that makes sense out of the list, I will grant the Oil Pigs the fact that the weather has been good to the refineries this year. Since those refineries turn out lots of gasoline, it does make sense that if they go off line, supply will drop, and cost will rise. I'll buy that one, guardedly anyway.

Reason number five: The drilling into the new oil reserves deep underneath the Gulf of Mexico. We are back to the "I don't buy it" list now. From what I heard, they aren't going to be getting anything out of those deep wells for years to come. While it could be understood that the mere presence of these wells, and the promise of the oil they contain might set us up for more plentiful oil in the future, I fail to see how that can so drastically effect oil prices here and now. Once again, it smells like a ruse to me.

It pays to pay attention to everything you are hearing when you are listening to the news. The biggest gems, and truest words always seem to come after the whitewash (or is it hogwash) has been applied. At the end of this story, it was said that even with the reasons given, gas prices are falling faster now than at any other time in history.

To me, that's the telling tale. That simple statement tells me that all the reasons given before, and everything else about the report was pure grade bull crap. Those words let me know that my original hypothesis on the situation is correct. Gas prices aren't falling because of any of the reasons that were trotted out on that particular report. They are falling so that gas prices aren't an issue in the upcoming mid-term elections. Since it's obvious from the report of concerns by voters that gas prices aren't in the top five any longer, this ruse by the Oil Pigs and the politicians who are in cahoots with them is having its desired effect.

It's not going to work on me, and I hope it doesn't work on anyone else with a brain. This is a clear example of nothing less than price manipulation, and political manipulation by the Republicans and the Oil Pigs. The Oil Pigs wanted lots of money, so they jacked up gas prices to criminal levels, and the Republicans looked the other way. Now that the Republicans are shaking in their crude oil covered boots, they are telling the Oil Pigs to ease up on their criminal profits.

Until I saw that report tonight, there was a shadow of doubt that maybe I was being paranoid. Perhaps I was analyzing the situation too much, or seeing ghosts where none existed. Now I know better. It's not paranoia if it's true. As far as I can see, this one little news report removed that shadow of doubt. You watch, either way the mid-term elections go, you can bet that oil and gas prices will find a way to start rising some time after November. The hope is, if the Democrats do take over the Senate, this time around, there will be a real investigation of the shenanigans pulled by the Oil Pigs.

Blessed be!
Pappy

http://radfaepappy.livejournal.com/

Harpist, unemployed blue collar worker, and Bush basher living deep in the heart of Texas.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/-opedn ... ed___a.htm

BWV 1080 · Post by **BWV 1080** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:52 am

Gas prices are falling faster now than at any other time in history.

What a load of BS. Oil has dropped about 16% from its peak, so there must have been a real conspiracy back in the early 90's when oil dropped 83% from the 60's to the 20's and in the late 90's when it dropped 50% from $20 to $10. Prices at the pump have dropped about 25% if you figure from $3.00 to $2.25 (more than the drop in crude prices).

The writer is an idiot who concocts a conspiracy to fill in around his own ignorance. Commodities are volatile, supply and demand at the margin can cause large swings in prices. This is basic economics. The writer cannot produce any evidence of this Republican conspiracy, we are just supposed to take his speculations at face value

Holden Fourth · Post by **Holden Fourth** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:04 am

A writer whose name I can no longer remember predicted (in an article I read about 15 months ago) that September 2006 would see a dramatic fall in oil prices. His basic reasoning was that oil prices were being artificially inflated by market speculators and that the world would reach a stage where speculators would start to hedge their bets (in other words colect their profit) and the world's economy would start to suffer so the arse would fall out of the market. He cited historical precedents for this, all based around market speculation of other commodities and if you think back then you can probably name them. IT stocks comes immediately to mind.

At the moment it appears that he is right and yet again this is backed by historical precedent.

A political scam engineered by the Republicans? What is this fuckwit smoking?

Post by **Corlyss_D** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 2:59 pm

Holden Fourth wrote:A writer whose name I can no longer remember predicted (in an article I read about 15 months ago) that September 2006 would see a dramatic fall in oil prices. His basic reasoning was that oil prices were being artificially inflated by market speculators and that the world would reach a stage where speculators would start to hedge their bets (in other words colect their profit) and the world's economy would start to suffer so the arse would fall out of the market. He cited historical precedents for this, all based around market speculation of other commodities and if you think back then you can probably name them. IT stocks comes immediately to mind.

I agree. This roller coaster ride started with Katrina. The increase in oil prices was indeed spot market speculation exasserbated by the middle east situation (Iraq, Iran, and then Lebanon). It has nothing to do with whether oil is available or not. The world is awash in oil right now, and has been from years. In the US the problem is refining capacity, of which we don't have enough thanks to the tireless efforts of the environmentalists and the NIMBY crowd. Once the Lebanon war ceased the prices were bound to drop. If the morons and criminals at the UN ever get around to starting to think about considering establishing a commission to study the possibilities of imposing sanctions, no matter how trivial, on Iran, the price will shoot up again.

lmpower · Post by **lmpower** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:06 pm

I think Holden Fourth is right. Speculators have been bidding up oil futures to unrealistic highs, and that bubble is starting to deflate. I wouldn't be surprised if the expert whose name is forgotten by Holden might be Phillip Verleger. He is an authority whose opinion I greatly respect on petroleum matters.

Barry · Post by **Barry** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:19 pm

If Bush and the Republicans control the price of oil, they must be masochists to allow it to get as high as it did, with the accompanying heat for them.

Fugu · Post by **Fugu** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:35 pm

Of course, the idiots out there who might think this is reason not to work toward oil independence are probably thinking there is no reason to seek out oil alternatives. That, and of course their contention that burning fossil fuels does nothing to our worsening environmental problems (Rush, et al).

lmpower · Post by **lmpower** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:42 pm

Fugu wrote:Of course, the idiots out there who might think this is reason not to work toward oil independence are probably thinking there is no reason to seek out oil alternatives. That, and of course their contention that burning fossil fuels does nothing to our worsening environmental problems (Rush, et al).

This is what bothers me about the fall in oil prices. It should be government policy to keep a floor under the price of oil in order to protect alternative energies from being whipsawed by wild fluctuations in the price of petroleum. California has an interesting proposition #87 on the ballot to tax oil companies in order to subsidize development of alternative energies.

Holden Fourth · Post by **Holden Fourth** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 4:04 pm

lmpower wrote:I think Holden Fourth is right. Speculators have been bidding up oil futures to unrealistic highs, and that bubble is starting to deflate. I wouldn't be surprised if the expert whose name is forgotten by Holden might be Phillip Verleger. He is an authority whose opinion I greatly respect on petroleum matters.

I don't think it was him but that doesn't matter. The article went further than "starting to deflate" and suggested a very drastic and sudden drop.

Corlyss - for once we are in agreement but for me the oil crisis started much earlier than that. Because the US is virtually self sufficient in oil you guys may not have noticed it as early as we Australians did.

Madame · Post by **Madame** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:45 pm

Ralph · Post by **Ralph** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:57 pm

Gas prices always drop after Labor Day. Here in New York they're still higher than a year ago but much lower than in the early summer. I don't expect more of a drop.

Haydnseek · Post by **Haydnseek** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:48 am

Factors That Pushed Oil Price Up Are Now Pushing It Down

By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, September 16, 2006

No matter what theory oil analysts used to explain the spike in petroleum prices over the summer, this week those analysts were saying that those factors -- geopolitics, supplies of refined products and hedge fund speculation -- are working in reverse to drive prices down.

"The whole perception has shifted," said Peter Fusaro, co-founder of the Energy Hedge Fund Center LLC, which tracks 520 energy hedge funds. Put the factors together, said oil consultant Philip K. Verleger Jr., and "you have a setup for one heck of a price washout."

Oil traders, who once fretted that tensions between the United States and Iran would spill into oil markets, now discount the chances of any conflict. And as political anxieties have faded, the fundamentals of the market -- a plateau in demand and rising oil inventories -- have moved to the forefront.

Yesterday, even suicide bombers attacking Yemeni oil facilities failed to inflame oil markets. While oil installations weren't damaged, the mere attempt over the summer might have sent prices soaring. Instead, the price of crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up just 11 cents yesterday, at $63.33 a barrel, finishing down 4.5 percent for the week and down 20 percent from the July peak.

While still at a historically high price, crude oil is the cheapest it has been since March. Spot market prices for wholesale gasoline have plunged by more than 90 cents a gallon since Aug. 2.

Abdulsamad al-Awadi, a European oil consultant and former executive in Kuwait's oil industry, said the easing of political tensions was one reason. He said that Israel's inability to vanquish Iran-backed Hezbollah in its war in Lebanon made it unlikely that the United States would confront Iran directly over its nuclear program. "Had Israel won decisively the fight with Hezbollah, things would be completely different," he said. Instead, he said, the Lebanon war "has definitely allowed more time for the Americans to rethink their aggressive strategy." Awadi said oil traders expected new talks with Iran soon.

In the United States, summer glitches in the gasoline supply chain -- caused by companies dropping one additive and switching to ethanol -- have disappeared. Now, with ethanol supplies and oil inventories growing and the summer driving season over, refining margins have collapsed from a peak of about $26 a barrel to around $6 a barrel. According to Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc., refinery margins fell 21 percent last week alone.

"This is a gasoline story," said Verleger, an independent analyst who discounts political tensions as a factor in oil prices. He argues that gasoline shortages pulled up crude oil prices and weren't pushed up by them. Now, he said, swelling gasoline stocks are pushing crude prices down.

Finally, the wave of pension fund and other money flowing into commodity index and hedge funds may be ending or changing directions. Verleger said that for years, financial advisers have been telling pension fund managers and other investors that commodities were investments as reliable as stocks and bonds. As a result, he said, more than $100 billion has poured into oil and gas commodity holdings, buttressing prices on spot and futures markets.

Now, Verleger said, those funds could accelerate the drop in oil markets. Asked how low prices could go, Verleger said, "This is a commodity market. There's no floor."

Fusaro said he expects pension funds to continue to boost investments in commodity and energy hedge funds, bolstering commodity prices. But, he said, prices could still drop in the short run. And if they did, he added, hedge funds would "probably exacerbate any price decline by running to the exits."

For now, hedge fund managers and oil traders are looking closely at supply and demand figures. Yesterday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for fourth-quarter oil demand by 300,000 barrels a day. The group said it expected a relatively modest 1.5 percent increase in world demand next year.

In its weekly report, the Energy Information Administration noted that Iraqi oil production in July and August was higher than at any time since 2004 and that the disruption caused by a leak in a BP PLC pipeline in Prudhoe Bay in Alaska seemed less severe than initially. Furthermore, the agency said, "mid-September has arrived without a single hurricane affecting oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and with no storms likely to arrive within at least the next week."

© 2006 The Washington Post Company

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01121.html

jbuck919 · Post by **jbuck919** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:25 am

Madame wrote:

Madame, that was funny on another thread, but we are not now beating a dead horse.

living_stradivarius · Post by **living_stradivarius** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:46 pm

Thank you Haydnseek.

Madame · Post by **Madame** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:00 am

jbuck919 wrote:
Madame, that was funny on another thread, but we are not now beating a dead horse.

I have deleted it -- not intended to be funny, emoticons are not smiles.

paulb · Post by **paulb** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:43 pm

There will be 3 main factors affecting future prices for gas/oil.
Hurricanes in the gulf, though temporary. DEpends in which month the hurricane hits, if early in the season, then there's always the possibility for yet another. So gas may not fall as qucikly. The size of the storm and extent of damage also has some impact.
Another influence is china. Each yr they need alittle more oil to keep their economy running.
One other factor will be Ahmad and Chavez, if they decide to carry out their threats of hurting the US economy with oil production changes.
I guess we should also consider attacks from al qaeda on oil supply lines.

with the exception of china's increasing demands, no one can predict future gas prices. Though do expect fluctuations in the yrs to come, and with a slight increase every yr.

My best guess is to add 25/30 cents/gal/average each yr.

Auntie Lynn · Post by **Auntie Lynn** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:15 am

I am reliably informed that a big part of the reason is that they are switching over to what is apparently called "winter weight" gasoline, or something like that...

My little car runs for about three weeks on eight gallons, love it...

Dennis Spath · Post by **Dennis Spath** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:21 am

Of course it is rather silly to believe that President Bush, Karl Rove, or Big Oil have anything to do with retail gasoline/diesel prices dropping 60 to 80 cents per gallon in just six weeks....just because one party control of the Federal Government is at risk. We all understand this is the expected result of Free Market Economics, and it is only a coincidence the laws of supply and demand have demonstrated their inevitability by kicking in at such a propitious time in history. God is Good....And their really IS a Santa Claus Virginia!!

paulb · Post by **paulb** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:26 pm

You surely can't be saying that Bush is trying to buy votes as election nears by dictating that gas prices be lowered.
Gee I did not know Bush had so much power over OPEC, hurricances and even over the sabatoging terrorists.

You do realize there is some connection between the WORLD price per barrel oil and gal/gas.
Sure Bush and big oil can influence the price, a nickle or a dime, but not for any sustainable period of time.

Haydnseek · Post by **Haydnseek** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:35 pm

Oil prices drop as supply threats ease

September 19, 2006

Oil prices fell Tuesday on the heels of a selloff in gasoline, as worries about supply threats eased and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. signaled a potential cooling of energy demand.

Traders remained cautious about the West's diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program, though they are increasingly less fearful that Iran will pull oil off the market.

Light sweet crude for October delivery fell 69 cents to $63.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where gasoline futures sank by 6.4 cents to $1.55 a gallon.

Energy futures have declined sharply in recent weeks due to a combination of soaring global inventories, a weakening U.S. economy and a perception of reduced geopolitical and hurricane threats.

On Monday, though, crude-oil futures were pushed higher by word that output at a mammoth BP PLC platform in the Gulf of Mexico won't be restored before mid-2008. Analysts said the buying was mostly technical in nature, following nearly two straight weeks of declines.

Oil prices are down nearly 20 percent from a record high of $78.40 a barrel mid-July.

Some economic weakness worldwide was acknowledged Friday by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which said fourth-quarter demand for its oil would be 320,000 barrels a day lower than previously forecast.

In 2007, OPEC expects demand for its crude to average 28.1 million barrels per day, or 800,000 barrels per day less than the 2006 average, in part because non-OPEC supplies are rising. As a result, some analysts believe the Vienna-based cartel, which is pumping close to 30 million barrels a day, may end up cutting its output by 1.5 million barrels a day or more.

U.S. inventory data set to be released Wednesday is expected to show a fifth weekly decline in crude stocks as refiners crank up their output of heating oil ahead of winter, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.

Analysts expect U.S. crude inventories to fall by an average of 1.4 million barrels below the 327.7 million barrels reported last week.

Supplies of gasoline and distillate, which includes heating oil and diesel, are seen mostly rising amid softer demand. The estimates averaged a modest increase of 200,000 barrels above the 207 million barrels reported last week. Distillate stocks are seen growing by an average of 1.6 million barrels, their third straight weekly build.

Copyright © 2006 The Associated Press.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060919/ap_ ... oil_prices

paulb · Post by **paulb** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:29 pm

For those who live up north you'll be happy to know that NG prices are very low, $4.90/KQF. Though there will be a increase in late Oct, as is every yr, it should not be like last yr. NG reserves are very high at 3 trillion+
So your NG bills should be lower this yr.

Alberich · Post by **Alberich** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:05 pm

Dennis Spath wrote:Of course it is rather silly to believe that President Bush, Karl Rove, or Big Oil have anything to do with retail gasoline/diesel prices dropping 60 to 80 cents per gallon in just six weeks....just because one party control of the Federal Government is at risk. We all understand this is the expected result of Free Market Economics, and it is only a coincidence the laws of supply and demand have demonstrated their inevitability by kicking in at such a propitious time in history. God is Good....And their really IS a Santa Claus Virginia!!

This is a crackpot statement. I wonder if
this person has any investments
in the US stock market. Whatever money he
has probably is kept in cash under his pillow.
If he believes what he wrote.

Post by **Corlyss_D** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:55 pm

Alberich wrote:
Dennis Spath wrote:Of course it is rather silly to believe that President Bush, Karl Rove, or Big Oil have anything to do with retail gasoline/diesel prices dropping 60 to 80 cents per gallon in just six weeks....just because one party control of the Federal Government is at risk. We all understand this is the expected result of Free Market Economics, and it is only a coincidence the laws of supply and demand have demonstrated their inevitability by kicking in at such a propitious time in history. God is Good....And their really IS a Santa Claus Virginia!!
This is a crackpot statement. I wonder if
this person has any investments
in the US stock market. Whatever money he
has probably is kept in cash under his pillow.
If he believes what he wrote.

Could be true, Al, but you underestimate our Dennis' capacity for sarcasm to the point of irrelevance.

RebLem · Post by **RebLem** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:26 pm

paulb wrote:You surely can't be saying that Bush is trying to buy votes as election nears by dictating that gas prices be lowered.
Gee I did not know Bush had so much power over OPEC, hurricances and even over the sabatoging terrorists.
You do realize there is some connection between the WORLD price per barrel oil and gal/gas.
Sure Bush and big oil can influence the price, a nickle or a dime, but not for any sustainable period of time.

I am not saying Bush ordered anything. I am saying that ARAMCO and the other oil barons know who butters their bread more thickly than anyone else.

paulb · Post by **paulb** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:52 pm

RebLem wrote:
paulb wrote:You surely can't be saying that Bush is trying to buy votes as election nears by dictating that gas prices be lowered.
Gee I did not know Bush had so much power over OPEC, hurricances and even over the sabatoging terrorists.
You do realize there is some connection between the WORLD price per barrel oil and gal/gas.
Sure Bush and big oil can influence the price, a nickle or a dime, but not for any sustainable period of time.
I am not saying Bush ordered anything. I am saying that ARAMCO and the other oil barons know who butters their bread more thickly than anyone else.

Keep in mind big oil provides employment in many fields throughtout many US cities.
Also to take note is the risk oil comapnies take. Hurricanes knocking out mega $ platforms, the attacks of insurgents/terrorists on their foreign fields of operation, which could come at any time.
Its important that big oil companies have money in the bank. Strong oil companies help insure that we are not as vunerable to OPEC and terrorists.

Americans need to learn to resist unfounded irrational thinking patterns, such as big oil's profits are equated to "scamming" the public. . . Lets leave that faulty style of methodology to the millions of islamofascists.

Alberich · Post by **Alberich** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 7:36 am

Corlyss_D wrote: Could be true, Al, but you underestimate our Dennis' capacity for sarcasm to the point of irrelevance.

His sarcasm might be effective
but his take on the economic
scene sure is not. While
he keeps smelling sour grapes
the rest of us are making
profits on our investments. This guy
could make a rainy day seem glorious!

Post by **Corlyss_D** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 2:36 pm

Rolaids for Republican Gas Pains

During a visit with journalists last week, President Bush was ebullient about the improving prospects of Republicans in the run-up to November elections. "Make sure you notice the price of gas the next few weeks," he told the media group.

People certainly have. The price of gasoline is falling so fast that some Democrats are muttering about an oil company conspiracy to aid Republicans. In reality, the explanations are more prosaic. Summer vacation driving demand has ended. A season of weak or no hurricanes has meant no disruption of Gulf State refineries. There is a perception of less political instability in the Middle East.

At the same time gas prices are falling, the stock market is rising. Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was only 162 points from its all-time high. A consumer confidence survey out the same day showed Americans were "in a decidedly more optimistic mood."

All of this means Republican candidates now have an opportunity to go on offense against Democrats on security and governance issues. "The base is finally coming around. Democratic intensity has been strong for the last year, but Republican intensity all of a sudden has increased," GOP strategist John Brabender told the Washington Times.

Political handicappers caution that Democrats are still benefiting from a surly electorate that is generally mad at Republicans. The difference now is that the GOP is starting to come up with reasons voters should also be mad at or leery of Democrats. This year, anything approaching a tie in the anger department vastly benefits Republicans.

-- John Fund

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