How Many of You Are Getting Snow ???

[Cosima___J]

No snow here, but it's supposed to go down to 33 degrees tonight. Brrrrrrrrrrr !


Cosi

[rwetmore]

No snow here, but it's supposed to go down to 33 degrees tonight. Brrrrrrrrrrr !


Cosi

Yeah, it's the result of global warming.

[John F]

I never left home yesterday, but the NY Times says this about the weather here:

Between one and three inches of snow landed in New York City as the first bands of snow came through in the afternoon, said Caswell F. Holloway, the city’s deputy mayor for operations. Yet it was quickly washed away by heavy rain being pushed along by about 30-m.p.h. northeasterly winds.

[RebLem]

No snow in Albuquerque, but I did have to leave the dog park a little earlier (6:15 PM) than I would have preferred Saturday evening because the temp was getting too cool for just the long sleeve shirt I was wearing.

[absinthe]

No snow here, but it's supposed to go down to 33 degrees tonight. Brrrrrrrrrrr !


Cosi

Yeah, it's the result of global warming.

yup. It's 64F here on the UK south coast. Should be around 52F tonight.
Please try to keep the sn*w over there.

[Ricordanza]

Although I see from his photos that Lenny got a good amount of snow in his part of the state, fortunately, no snow in my part of Southern New Jersey (but it's 34 degrees this morning!).

[rwetmore]

We didn't get any snow accumulation here in Monmouth County. It is mostly just cold and windy. The temperature this morning was below freezing. I hope this is not an omen as to what kind of winter we're going to have.

[jbuck919]

We only got a dusting.

[IcedNote]

I love California.

-G

[jbuck919]

No snow here, but it's supposed to go down to 33 degrees tonight. Brrrrrrrrrrr !


Cosi

Yeah, it's the result of global warming.

Although I was lucky enough to be on the fringe of this, as I was for the flooding that hit the area in September, this is the third once-or-twice-in-a-century event to hit the area within the last year. The increasing density of anomalous weather events in a given area is already doing for your argument that no one of them can be blamed on global warming what undeniable reality did for the tobacco companies' long-standing argument that there was no proof that smoking caused any individual case of cancer. And if this storm portends a winter, and then a series of more seasons, full of such events, as I fear it might, then I am sure the clientele of the Republican Party will be happy to have such as you around as their unwitting stooge as they continue to block responsible action. An accumulation of people like you who vote and influence other gullible voters is at least as much a boon to them as their paid lobbyists.

[rwetmore]

Although I was lucky enough to be on the fringe of this, as I was for the flooding that hit the area in September, this is the third once-or-twice-in-a-century event to hit the area within the last year. The increasing density of anomalous weather events in a given area is already doing for your argument that no one of them can be blamed on global warming what undeniable reality did for the tobacco companies' long-standing argument that there was no proof that smoking caused any individual case of cancer. And if this storm portends a winter, and then a series of more seasons, full of such events, as I fear it might, then I am sure the clientele of the Republican Party will be happy to have such as you around as their unwitting stooge as they continue to block responsible action. An accumulation of people like you who vote and influence other gullible voters is at least as much a boon to them as their paid lobbyists.

John,

Again, I suggest you perform a little more due diligence on this issue. It's not physically possible for global warming, anthropogenic or not, to cause unusually cold weather - be it a once a century event or not. By the kind of logic you're using, I could argue that unusually warm weather somewhere is evidence of global cooling or coming global cooling. This is obviously ridiculous and fallacious.

Unusually warm, cold, wet or dry weather is always happening somewhere. Years ago before this issue was around, it was common knowledge that the one thing we can't control or have any influence over is the weather. 20 years of propaganda and politicization has affected far too many people's brains out there.

I of course haven't the foggiest idea what direction the climate is headed in, but if happens to cool over this century, it will be blamed on global warming. That's what's coming next - global warming causes global cooling. Given the ubiquitous gullibility and naivete I've seen on this issue, I'm sure many would believe this, as the logic is not much of a stretch from that which you've espoused here.

[rwetmore]

BTW, what were the once or twice in a century weather events that occurred in my area over the past few years? I must have missed them.

Have you considered that there are probably quite a few different once-in-a-century type weather events, which make the chances of a once-in-a-century event occurring significantly greater than just once every 100 years - perhaps even as often as one every few years, or even occasionally several in one year?

[living_stradivarius]

no snow but evenings have gotten pretty cold here

[jbuck919]

BTW, what were the once or twice in a century weather events that occurred in my area over the past few years? I must have missed them.

Lucky you. Not all areas will be equally affected. Early indications are that I live in one of the unlucky ones.

Have you considered that there are probably quite a few different once-in-a-century type weather events, which make the chances of a once-in-a-century event occurring significantly greater than just once every 100 years - perhaps even as often as one every few years, or even occasionally several in one year?

Look, I used to teach AP statistics. Did you know that randomizing the correct choice in a multiple choice question has to be manually adjusted because occasionally there will be four or more of the same letter answer in a row by random chance? The same principle is operative. But if it happens five times on one test, then someone had better start looking at the software. And what we seem to be seeing now is evidence that there is more than random chance operating here. This will play out--or not--in the years immediately to come, but right now it is not looking good, and eventually people are going to notice that their lives have been severely disrupted by frequent extraordinary weather events.

The difference between you and me is that I hope I'm wrong.

[living_stradivarius]

Look, I used to teach AP statistics. Did you know that randomizing the correct choice in a multiple choice question has to be manually adjusted because occasionally there will be four or more of the same letter answer in a row by random chance?

Sample size of data being considered here is way too small to be statistically significant. Don't forget about local maxima/minima vs global maxima/minima.

[keaggy220]

I love California.

-G

Does that mean you like getting lots of snow or that you like not getting any snow? California could be either...

[keaggy220]

No accumulation but it did snow. I've lived in the area all my life and that's the second time I've seen snow in October. We got about an inch or two in - I believe 1987. I guess we were due.

Hopefully it's not a sign of a harsh and cold winter...

[lennygoran]

(No snow here, but it's supposed to go down to 33 degrees tonight. Brrrrrrrrrrr !)

No heat or power here-went down to 26 degrees-our snow total was close to a foot. Len

[lennygoran]

We only got a dusting.)

Congrats! How about sending your generator down to my place! Len

[IcedNote]

Does that mean you like getting lots of snow or that you like not getting any snow? California could be either...

I'm in farmland near Sacramento, so bring on the blue skies!

-G

[jbuck919]

Look, I used to teach AP statistics. Did you know that randomizing the correct choice in a multiple choice question has to be manually adjusted because occasionally there will be four or more of the same letter answer in a row by random chance?

Sample size of data being considered here is way too small to be statistically significant. Don't forget about local maxima/minima vs global maxima/minima.

Yes, the sample size is still small, which is why I continue to hedge my argument somewhat. But we are talking about discrete phenomena, not quantities with maxima and minima. Finding a way to quantify the concept of "extreme weather event" may be part of the problem, but as Justice Potter Stewart said about pornography, we know it when we see it. Perhaps the quantification can be the economic cost of dealing with weather disasters from year to year, and I'll leave it to the scientists to say when enough has happened to be statistically meaningful. But then a lot of people have had enough already, and a lot more will think so with each succeeding event.

[rwetmore]

And what we seem to be seeing now is evidence that there is more than random chance operating here.

Based on what? Anecdotes? Where are you getting this stuff from?

The difference between you and me is that I hope I'm wrong.

No, the difference between you and me is I know the these things cannot be supported by any real science or logic - they're just dogma. Furthermore, even it were true that there is an uptick in so-called 'extreme weather events' (whatever that means exactly), in no way can this be attributed to anthropogenic CO2 emissions or even global warming in general, be it man caused or not. If anything, global warming would tend cause fewer extreme weather events because the equator to pole difference in temperature decreases with global warming. Generally speaking, contrasting cold and warm air is what fuels extreme or more erratic weather conditions.

[jbuck919]

Furthermore, even it were true that there is an uptick in so-called 'extreme weather events' (whatever that means exactly), in no way can this be attributed to anthropogenic CO2 emissions or even global warming in general, be it man caused or not. If anything, global warming would tend cause fewer extreme weather events because the equator to pole difference in temperature decreases with global warming. Generally speaking, contrasting cold and warm air is what fuels extreme or more erratic weather conditions.

Well, thank you for that. I assume the melting from the warmer air will result in the discovery of more dinosaur bones which were placed there by God when he created the Earth 6000 years ago.

[rwetmore]

I assume the melting from the warmer air will result in the discovery of more dinosaur bones which were placed there by God when he created the Earth 6000 years ago.

Have you forgotten that I'm not a creationist - but an atheist/agnostic?

[jbuck919]

I assume the melting from the warmer air will result in the discovery of more dinosaur bones which were placed there by God when he created the Earth 6000 years ago.

Have you forgotten that I'm not a creationist - but an atheist/agnostic?

I have remembered that you subscribe to something other than science.

[Wallingford]

We had half a foot of it last Wednesday.

Tonight it promises to be that amount again.

[living_stradivarius]

Perhaps the quantification can be the economic cost of dealing with weather disasters from year to year...

don't forget about the economic cost of fretting about weather disasters that would have been inevitable one way or another or about the economic opportunity cost that would have been fronted to "prevent" said disasters

[jbuck919]

don't forget about the economic cost of fretting about weather disasters that would have been inevitable one way or another....

I look forward to your paper in the journal Science about the economic cost of fretting.

[living_stradivarius]

don't forget about the economic cost of fretting about weather disasters that would have been inevitable one way or another....

I look forward to your paper in the journal Science about the economic cost of fretting.

media costs, $ squandered on preventive projects that are fronts for empty causes (look at all the "clean tech" i.e. biofuels that wound up polluting our planet more than if they hadn't been pursued).

[jbuck919]

don't forget about the economic cost of fretting about weather disasters that would have been inevitable one way or another....

I look forward to your paper in the journal Science about the economic cost of fretting.

media costs, $ squandered on preventive projects that are fronts for empty causes (look at all the "clean tech" i.e. biofuels that wound up polluting our planet more than if they hadn't been pursued).

All this is an elaborate way of saying that we may never be sure if we did the right thing. That argument can be used against any course of public action, and may be the reason why we rarely see the moral equivalent of war.

[living_stradivarius]

Biofuels were clearly the wrong course of action because of an overreaction to uncertainty. The problem was mindless advocacy. People bought into the feel-good let's be green bs instead of investing in industrial energy R&D (energy output efficiency vs energy-CO2 correlation) and we wound up spewing more crap into the air while crowding out deserving energy research.

[jbuck919]

Biofuels were clearly the wrong course of action because of an overreaction to uncertainty. The problem was mindless advocacy.

With regard to controlling CO2 emissions, I shall endeavor to remain in a state of mindful advocacy.

[Febnyc]

I don't have any idea what is going on - global warming or not - but our weather, this year, up here 50 miles north/northeast of NYC has been awful to an unprecedented degree.

Winter 2011 brought us a snow storm almost every week, breaking records for total accumulations. Then, in March we had a snow/rain event which caused floods - my house took water from below and above. The summer was so wet that I, for the first time ever, did not have to turn on our underground sprinklers even once. The water table has risen so that the slightest rain causes our sump pumps to kick in.

Then, Hurricane Irene at the end of August - lost power for five days and lots of tree and garden damage.

This event finally convinced us to install a generator - and all through September and October the electricians and propane people were working on the project. Finally, last Friday morning the thing (20,000 watts, automatic turn-on, etc.) was completed and factory certified. The next day, Saturday October 30th, we had almost two feet of heavy, wet snow. This was a catastrophe - trees and limbs breaking off like cannon shots, utility poles shearing in half, cars and homes buried under huge trees.

Power was off for six days - thankfully the generator kept us living normally - except for the loss of cable/internet services. But we have an iPhone and a land line so we could communicate with the outside world. Most people just lived in cold houses, by their fireplaces - with no water.

Our property is strewn with large tree limbs. We appear to have lost about five old trees - two oaks which are around 50 feet tall will have to come down. Nothing hit the house, but the cleanup will take two weeks or so.

This was a disaster for southeastern NY State and, especially, southwestern Connecticut where, in some towns, power still has not been restored over a week later.

This string of weather events has me wondering if this is a climactic change or simply a chain of unconnected, fortuitous events. It also has us looking to sell our house and move back into Manhattan where weather really does not affect everyday living.

[jbuck919]

I don't have any idea what is going on - global warming or not - but our weather, this year, up here 50 miles north/northeast of NYC has been awful to an unprecedented degree.

Sorry you were hit so hard, Frank. Everyone up here is afraid of what winter will bring if the pattern of way-above-average precipitation continues.

I also found the process of getting a generator installed to be protracted and disruptive. Between that and numerous half-days lost for needed service to two cars, my summer was pretty well blown. But the thing was in place just in time for Irene.

[lennygoran]

(This was a disaster for southeastern NY State and, especially, southwestern Connecticut where, in some towns, power still has not been restored over a week later.
)

Don't forget us here in nj! I had similar kinds of trouble to yours but yours seem even worse except since sat we have not had power-a full week and still out-it gets cold and dark! We had garden damage too but not as bad as yours.

We're not moving to nyc yet but want a generator-a stand by type looks like the safest bet for us-why did it take so long to get your project completed? Where did you buy yours? Len

[Febnyc]

John: Thank you for the kind words. Our cleanup begins tomorrow!

Len: We bought a Kohler 20,000 watt generator with an automatic transfer switch, which turns on the generator about 6 seconds after the power goes off. We used a local licensed electrician to do the installation and he supplied the generator from the area's Kohler authorized office. It wasn't inexpensive but, after this past week, it already has paid for itself as far as we are concerned.

And I am sorry to have forgotten New Jersey - in fact, both my children and their families live in NJ - one, in Cranford, never lost power (!), and the other, in Maplewood, was out for perhaps 48 hours.

[lennygoran]

> We used a local licensed electrician to do the installation and he supplied the generator from the area's Kohler authorized office.<

I'm gonna have to see if we have an authorized office in our neck of the woods--did you say it took a long time to get it installed--that is was kind of disruptive?

> And I am sorry to have forgotten New Jersey - in fact, both my children and their families live in NJ - one, in Cranford, never lost power (!), and the other, in Maplewood, was out for perhaps 48 hours.<

What a small world--2 of our best friends live in Cranford and we lived in Maplewood for over 20 years--the garden on a fifth of an acre was too small for us so we sold the house and moved out here. We definitely want to research this and get a standby--somehow we gotta try to eliminate experiences like the last 8 days of cold and darkness and loss of refrigeration. We called an electrician we've used before an we're going to get an estimate in the next 2 weeks--as you can imagine they're swamped with requests right now. The person I spoke to said I should compile a priority list of what's most important to keep running--gotta be heat, cold and hot water, lights for sure! Regards, Len

[jbuck919]

Len, the problem is that if Randall (rwetmore) is right, then you have nothing to worry about and will be locking the barn door after the horse is stolen by getting this generator. But if I'm right, it represents a sound investment. What a terrible responsibility for the two of us to bear!

[Febnyc]

> We used a local licensed electrician to do the installation and he supplied the generator from the area's Kohler authorized office.<

I'm gonna have to see if we have an authorized office in our neck of the woods--did you say it took a long time to get it installed--that is was kind of disruptive?

> And I am sorry to have forgotten New Jersey - in fact, both my children and their families live in NJ - one, in Cranford, never lost power (!), and the other, in Maplewood, was out for perhaps 48 hours.<

What a small world--2 of our best friends live in Cranford and we lived in Maplewood for over 20 years--the garden on a fifth of an acre was too small for us so we sold the house and moved out here. We definitely want to research this and get a standby--somehow we gotta try to eliminate experiences like the last 8 days of cold and darkness and loss of refrigeration. We called an electrician we've used before an we're going to get an estimate in the next 2 weeks--as you can imagine they're swamped with requests right now. The person I spoke to said I should compile a priority list of what's most important to keep running--gotta be heat, cold and hot water, lights for sure! Regards, Len

1. It took a long time to install because the electrician had to move our circuit boxes - and our house has almost 70 circuits - to make room for the generator's transfer box. If there is room for this where your electrical boxes presently sit, the installation is not a big deal. We also had to get an additional propane tank since the ones we have for our swimming pool heater are too far away from the generator. So it took a while for the tank (250 gallons) to be delivered and installed.

2. You should not have to work directly with the manufacturer's rep - a good, licensed electrician who is experienced with these things will do that. This is what we did - it cost a bit more, I am sure, but we wanted everything done perfectly - and so I kept out of the whole operation. If you purchase the generator yourself, you still need an electrician to install it.

3. Yes, depending on the size of the generator you choose you will have to decide which circuits will be on it. The 20K size (which was only marginally more expensive than a 14K) runs almost every necessary operation in the house. Such things as the clothes dryer, electric oven - which draw lots of power - are not on the generator. But we have heat, well pump, sump pumps, electric cook top, microwave, many lights and outlets, refrigerator, garage doors, front gate doors. There really is no loss of creature comforts.

4. It is costly - the installation itself and then I learned that ours, even on a minimal load, used 30 gallons of propane each day = $100/day. Of course, it was worth every single penny - but just to let you know.

There currently is a great demand for generators and I understand there is a delivery lag. If you're interested in pursuing this you should speak with an electrician or two in your area - see what they recommend. I would be happy to compare what I experienced with what you are quoted, if you wish.

[Febnyc]

Len, the problem is that if Randall (rwetmore) is right, then you have nothing to worry about and will be locking the barn door after the horse is stolen by getting this generator. But if I'm right, it represents a sound investment. What a terrible responsibility for the two of us to bear!

John: I honestly dunno what is going on - and whether (pun) or not the horse already has bolted. As a matter of fact, when I wrote the check for the generator I said that I hoped never to have to use the thing. As it turned out, it was needed within 24 hours and ran for six days. I think it already has paid for itself in that I was able to retain my sanity last week and could live normally. So your "sound investment" approach works for me, rwetmore notwithstanding.

[jbuck919]

Len, the problem is that if Randall (rwetmore) is right, then you have nothing to worry about and will be locking the barn door after the horse is stolen by getting this generator. But if I'm right, it represents a sound investment. What a terrible responsibility for the two of us to bear!

John: I honestly dunno what is going on - and whether (pun) or not the horse already has bolted. As a matter of fact, when I wrote the check for the generator I said that I hoped never to have to use the thing. As it turned out, it was needed within 24 hours and ran for six days. I think it already has paid for itself in that I was able to retain my sanity last week and could live normally. So your "sound investment" approach works for me, rwetmore notwithstanding.

I almost feel guilty because my conscience is clear (OMG what an oxymoron!). The power is guaranteed to go out here for a substantial amount of time several times a year under normal circumstances, and in the winter that can mean a dangerous home freeze that would endanger the pipes and my 91-year-old mother not in that order. If you knew how I had slaved over that old gas generator that only ran for three hours at a time and had to be started manually.....

[Febnyc]

I almost feel guilty because my conscience is clear (OMG what an oxymoron!). The power is guaranteed to go out here for a substantial amount of time several times a year under normal circumstances, and in the winter that can mean a dangerous home freeze that would endanger the pipes and my 91-year-old mother not in that order. If you knew how I had slaved over that old gas generator that only ran for three hours at a time and had to be started manually.....

I do know - since I had a gas generator during Hurricane Irene - with so many extension cords running out of it that my house looked like it was on life-support (which, of course, essentially it was!). Oh - the trips to find an operating gas station and then constantly (ours went for 8 hours or so) filling the tank. We had no water, no heat (well, that wasn't needed then) and only a few lights - but had the fridge connected and needed fewer flashlights and candles than usual.

[jbuck919]

Having just read in detail Frank's description of his set-up, I feel obliged to mention that a decision may depend on the size of one's house, to wit, Frank must have a much larger one than I do. I have a 10K generator, and it also will not run the dryer or the range/oven, but literally runs everything else. (I went out and bought a double electric burner just in case.) As for propane usage, I have two 100-gallon propane tanks that used 8% of capacity in 33 hours without power after Irene. (Propane tanks are never filled to more than 80% of capacity to begin with for safety reasons.) So theoretically I could have gone for more than ten days without power. Perhaps Len has a natural gas line, which would solve that problem (also that the tanks are hideous).

The peace of mind leaves me with the feeling of swimming in luxury.

[lennygoran]

>Len, the problem is that if Randall (rwetmore) is right<

Randall wrong--impossible! Not only that he should pay for my generator--or at least half! Regards, Len

[lennygoran]

>I would be happy to compare what I experienced with what you are quoted, if you wish.<

Thanks so much for this info--I'm going to print it up and show it to my wife--I already contacted 1 electrician and will be doing more in the next few days. Regards, Len

[lennygoran]

>Perhaps Len has a natural gas line<

Thanks to you and Frank for all this valuable info--we don't have propane or natural gas--we use oil. Are the standby generators noisy? Regards, Len

[jbuck919]

>Perhaps Len has a natural gas line<

Thanks to you and Frank for all this valuable info--we don't have propane or natural gas--

You'll have to have one or the other. (I also heat my home separately, with a kerosene furnace.)

Are the standby generators noisy?

You'll know when they are on, but the sound is not obnoxious like a portable gas generator, which sounds like three lawn mowers going at the same time (I ran mine from the garage). You won't mind the noise when you consider what it is doing for you.

[Febnyc]

John: Our house is not big (about 3,500 sq feet) but there are lots of "things" to run - two sump pumps which are needed because of our very high ground water table; the whole property is fenced (protects our gardens, etc., from deer) and so we have heavy gates with strong motors at the entrance; oil burner/forced air heating system; central a/c; oil hot water; and electric stove and ovens (the latter, of course, not on the generator). So, even though we only use the a/c in the most oppressive days (we hate to close up the house), we opted to buy a larger unit in case the power went out in the dog days of summer. As I mentioned, the difference from 10K or 14K to the 20K was not an issue in the broader scheme of the project.

Len: As John says, the "permanent" generator is not as loud as a portable. Ours is encased in a strong box-like affair which is insulated against noise. Was like having a small truck engine running outside - but, to us, under the circumstances, it was dulcissimo.

[lennygoran]

>You'll have to have one or the other. <

Yes found that out today--I went to the Koehler website and discovered that the authorized dealers in my area are the guys who handle my garden equipment--never knew they did large generators- and an electrical outfit we've used for years! I'll be getting their estimates in a week or two.

>You'll know when they are on, but the sound is not obnoxious like a portable gas generator, <

Nice to know--in the portable field I understand Honda which my garden man also sells, are quite quiet. Regards, Len.

[lennygoran]

>As I mentioned, the difference from 10K or 14K to the 20K was not an issue in the broader scheme of the project.<

Frank for us it was only a $900 difference--something we can live with to get more goodies!

> Ours is encased in a strong box-like affair which is insulated against noise. Was like having a small truck engine running outside - but, to us, under the circumstances, it was dulcissimo.<

Good to know--I'll look into this--btw we have 2100 square feet. And we close our gate manually! Regards, Len [jealous]